Cap rates across nearly all property segments compressed significantly since late 2020. Pent-up demand, lack of supply, eagerness to return to business, and the close of a contentious presidential election all led to the frenzy in buying over the past nearly 24 months. Now that the Federal Reserve has decided to tackle inflation by aggressively increasing the Federal Funds Rate and as interest rates for commercial mortgages have risen between 175-250+ basis points in a matter of months, shouldn’t those compressed cap rates follow? Not necessarily. Cap rates for STNL retail have shown strength during the past few months as interest rates have rapidly increased. The reason? Strong demand for the product type amongst a constantly growing number of individual investors, private equity funds, and others have kept the market in balance. Many STNL transactions are being closed with all-cash or lowly leveraged positions, neither of which are greatly affected by fluctuations in interest rates. That being said, we have begun to see highly leveraged investors require lower pricing to offset higher interest rates. As this continues and more deals need to be re-priced to accommodate these high leverage positions, we would expect cap rates to eventually creep upwards to accommodate the needs of the market.

If you have questions about buying or selling on a national basis, you can reach out to Kyle Hartung, Vice President and Director of Investment Sales at Goodman Real Estate Services Group, LLC.

Each quarter, the CoStar Power Broker Deals Award recognizes the top commercial real estate deals made by brokers.

Zack Sogoloff, Senior Vice President at Goodman Real Estate Services Group LLC; and Seth Marks, Senior Director at Goodman Real Estate Services Group LLC were recipients of two CoStar Power Broker Quarterly Deals Awards in 2022's second quarter. These awards were received in recognition of their deal with Boot Barn for 12,000 SF in Akron, Ohio, and their deal with HomeGoods for 28,095 SF in Warrensville Heights, Ohio. Zack and Seth represented the landlord in these transactions. These were the top retail leasing deals and largest completed transactions in the Cleveland and Akron markets for this year's second quarter.

To date, Zack Sogoloff has now received a total of 17 CoStar awards, and Seth has received a total of 12 CoStar awards.

Before the pandemic, the fitness industry was greatly expanding its presence in the retail scene by occupying space in malls and shopping centers. According to CoStar Group, the amount of square footage leased within malls by fitness concepts and gyms had increased by 70% since 2013, with Planet Fitness leading the way in leasing more vacant mall and empty big-box store space than any other company (Fitt INSIDER). Today, big gyms have adapted to the decline in memberships following COVID-19 by offering livestream workouts, as many prefer to continue digital workouts. While memberships are beginning to rise again, the future of fitness will likely remain a balance between virtual and in-person options. 

Further, smaller concepts have become an increasingly popular option amongst gym-goers. After learning to exercise in an at-home setting, many are hesitant to return to an overwhelming, larger gym setting. Although these smaller-sized fitness options pose a higher price point than larger-scale centers, some consumers have shifted from the big-gym scene to a more personalized experience. Creative forms of fitness, such as Orangetheory Fitness, which offers one hour HIIT focused workout classes; Club Pilates, which offers a more low-impact mind and body exercise; TITLE Boxing Club, which provides users with an explosive full-body boxing experience; and CycleBar, one of the many growing cycling concepts that motivates each class with exciting music and a self-empowering group mentality, have taken the fitness scene by storm. These “boutique studios” do not require big-box space and seem to be popping up at every turn. There is a newfound emphasis on mental health and achieving a balance between healthy exercise habits together with maintaining overall well-being. Many are prioritizing emotional and mental fitness as well as traditional physical exercise. These smaller concepts are at the forefront of this thought process. 

For its new retail concept, pOpshelf, Dollar General has pledged to open approximately 1,000 stores by the end of the 2025 fiscal year (pOpshelf). The brand offers affordable and trendy merchandising, and their mission is to create an exciting environment for shoppers to enjoy the fun and unique things in life. The company sells a wide range of products, such as home décor, party goods, beauty supplies, toys, entertainment items, and much more. pOpshelf emphasizes the experience of shopping and encourages the customer to explore their products in an almost treasure hunt-like fashion, with their merchandise on a constant rotation to keep consumers excited to come back for more!

As of July 2022, the company has opened 75 pOpshelf locations in the U.S. across seven states, including Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Texas, South Carolina, and Florida (ScrapeHero). The retail concept occupies spaces of roughly 9,000 SF and targets younger and wealthier women as opposed to Dollar General’s slightly older and more rural target market (RetailWire). According to Dollar General, “over 90% of the merchandise sold by pOpshelf costs $5 or less” (CNCB). Dollar General is well on its way to achieving their expansion goal since its announcement in December 2021, and they are continuing plans to reach new markets across the country. 

Zack Sogoloff, Senior Vice President at Goodman Real Estate Services Group, and Daniel Clark, Vice President and Manager, Columbus Office, at Goodman Real Estate Services Group, have secured tenant representation of pOpshelf throughout Ohio, excluding the Cincinnati and Dayton markets. Zack Sogoloff is actively seeking locations and working on deals in the Northeastern and Northwestern Ohio markets, and Daniel Clark is actively seeking locations and working on deals in Central and Southeastern Ohio. pOpshelf is considering inline, endcap, and freestanding locations ranging from 9,000 to 12,000 square feet, with a minimum of 68 feet of frontage. 

The greater Columbus, Ohio, market is quickly becoming one of the nation’s fastest growing areas. Early this year, Intel announced its plan to invest in Ohio as the new site of two cutting edge chip factories. With construction beginning in the Columbus suburb of New Albany (a $20 billion investment in the initial phase), the Columbus metro area is preparing for intense economic impact and a forever-changed market. According to Intel, this decision will influence the state of Ohio immensely; "As the largest single private-sector investment in Ohio history, the initial phase of the project is expected to create 3,000 Intel jobs and 7,000 construction jobs over the course of the build, and to support tens of thousands of additional local long-term jobs across a broad ecosystem of suppliers and partners" (Intel). While the Columbus area has seen growth in several local sectors over the past decade, Intel suggests that this profound impact will reach much further than just Ohio. The investment has already attracted several suppliers and ecosystem partners to aid in supporting Intel's operations, and their investments will further improve the U.S. Semi-conductor system on a national scale (Intel). 

To gain real insight into Intel’s potential impact on the region, greater Columbus residents need look no further than Intel's chip plant in Chandler, Arizona. Production began at the Arizona Intel plant in 1980, when the agricultural city of Chandler had a population of 10,000. Now, in part to Intel's investment, Chandler, Arizona, is home to more than 270,000 people and provides a significant economic boost to the region. According to a 2019 report, Intel contributed a total of $3.89 billion to Arizona's GDP (Phoenix Business Journal). 

Amidst the big Intel news, the City of Columbus continues to work to promote job and population growth, having signed an economic development agreement this year containing a strong job growth incentive, specifically, a "40% break on income taxes for the next 25 years on new jobs in the district" for Ohio State University’s Innovation District. The University pledged to create "12,000 net new jobs, create about 300 affordable housing units out of 1,500 new residential units overall, and involve minority- and women-owned construction companies in the 270-acre project southwest of Lane Avenue and Kenny Road" (Columbus Business First). This is in addition to the more than $700 million in construction in progress surrounding Ohio State University’s campus.

Bringing these new jobs to the region will require many more residents, and the accelerated population growth will present several obstacles for housing development to keep the city’s economy running smoothly. According to Realtor.com, Columbus is among the top 10 housing markets projected to see the most growth in 2022, predicting sales will increase by 13.7% and prices will rise by 6.3%.  As more residents try to find suitable housing the market supply will most likely continue to be constrained, even with rising interest rates.

With a history of steady population and economic growth, the greater Columbus area continues to put itself on the national stage with the significant financial commitments made by both a new-to-the-region company in Intel and a long-time Columbus ambassador in The Ohio State University. Thanks to these companies and institutions, along with many local and regional companies, the greater Columbus area will continue to grow and thrive for many years to come.

For more information on the greater Columbus area, please contact Daniel Clark, Vice President and Manager, Columbus Office, at Goodman Real Estate Services Group.